Being an optimistic, glass-half-full kind of guy, I don’t like predicting failure. So, instead of “busts”, this is more of a suggestion of players that will not live up to the hype of their ADP.

Reviewing 2021’s TGFBI ADP makes grim reading for those who took Christian Yelich (10) or Cody Bellinger (14).

1Ronald Acuna Jr.
2Fernando Tatis Jr.
3Juan Soto
4Mookie Betts
5Jacob deGrom
6Mike Trout
7Trea Turner
8Gerrit Cole
9Shane Bieber
10Christian Yelich
11Jose Ramirez
12Trevor Story
13Freddie Freeman
14Cody Bellinger
15Trevor Bauer
16Francisco Lindor
17Yu Darvish
18Lucas Giolito
19Bryce Harper
20Aaron Nola

Personally, I think it was too tough to predict that those former MVPs would fail so miserably in 2021. And the same can be said for trying to pick bust candidates in 2022.

BUST CANDIDATE No.1: Marcus Semien

I hate this pick as Semien is an excellent player who enjoyed a career year in Toronto. The likelihood of him playing 162 games again is slim. Yes, I know he did in 2019, but the logical decision is that he will miss some time, and therefore his counting stats will reduce. Will he hit 45 home runs or swipe 15 bags again? Once again, you would have to say the chances are slim. It is tough to see Semien returning value on a top 30 pick.


I hate this pick as much as the Semien one. Arozarena is such an exciting player to watch. His steal of home against Boston in the postseason was one of the highlights of 2021.

However, it is difficult to overlook his xStats – the expected results from the quality of his at-bats.

The difference between his .350 wOBA and .302 xwOBA is shocking and certainly should give a reason for hesitation before taking Arozarena as the 40th hitter off the board.

Photos by Mike Ehrmann, Meg Oliphant, and Mark Blinch